With 70% of all housing stock in the hands of owner occupiers and home loan interest rates moving in the right direction, I seriously doubt it. Home owners will generally do what ever it takes to keep their home, so if the Banks and other lenders are sensible about foreclosures, we are unlikely to see a heap of properties, dumped on the market at once.
However, having said that, it is impossible to predict what new crisis, may spook the herd into action. If this happens, I suggest you may be best served by adopting a maverick attitude and not follow the herd. Property is long term, financial markets operate in cycles, the current tough times will only be temporary.
Rising unemployment could effect the value of House’s in the coming years. More Australians than ever are now employed on a casual basis or as subcontractors. They will be the first casualties of any big down turn in our economy and if they have bought homes in the last 5 to 6 years they may not have enough equity to help them ride out periods of unemployment. I suggest all casual employees and small business home owners look seriously at refinancing to interest only mortgages, for part or all of their home loan borrowing in these uncertain times.
The environment poses a different dilemma. Australia has a shortage of housing stock in areas where people want to live. To improve the situation the government has to sponsor a movement toward environmentally sustainable housing projects, taking into account the problems of water and transport. The internet and whatever is next will make communication and delivery of services more efficient, but people need drinking water and a way to get around without it costing them half of their incomes.
I am still bullish for property in all countries of the world. Individual house price’s may fall for a variety of reasons, but experienced investors know that the best time to buy property is when the market is weak. This year may be a good time to buy property if the basic fundamentals, including return on investment, are right.
I have always found it a good time to buy, when everybody is telling you that property is a bad investment. Now is the time to get set for the future. Don’t wait for the next boom to invest. Get set for the next boom and be one of those investors who pushes property to the next level by building and renovating this year. Create your own boom. Then when everyone else hop’s in and pushes the value of the properties up, you will be rewarded handsomely.
Refinance my home loan!
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